Report shows GTHA carbon emissions rising — but data points to shift to lower-carbon lifestyles

Carbon emissions across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area went up in 2021, according to a new report. But the slight rise was up from the lowest point of the pandemic, and there’s evidence in the data of a greater shift toward lower-carbon lifestyles that points to a near future where we burn far less fossil fuels.

“The top reason for optimism in the report is that the rebound in emissions in 2021 was substantially smaller than the pandemic-induced drop in 2020,” said Bryan Purcell, vice-president of policy and programs at The Atmospheric Fund (TAF), which produced the latest carbon emissions inventory.

This is most pronounced in the two sectors with the highest emissions: transportation and building heating and cooling.

Transportation emissions increased by 2.3 per cent in 2021 after having dropped 18.4 per cent the year before. Emissions from heating and cooling buildings rose 3.8 per cent after having dropped 8.6 per cent in 2020, according to the report published Tuesday.

Overall, emissions in the region increased by 4.5 per cent in 2021, from 49 million tonnes to 51.2 million tonnes, according to TAF, an agency created by the City of Toronto in 1991 that funds low-carbon solutions.

Emissions are growing when they need to be shrinking, by eight per cent a year to keep the region on track to becoming carbon neutral by 2050 — much less Toronto’s more ambitious deadline of 2040.

“The longer-term trend indicates urban emissions in the region are flatlining,” states the report.

“Despite a few successful policies and programs highlighted in this inventory, there has been little progress to reduce emissions since Ontario’s coal phaseout in 2014.

“Without ambitious action by government, businesses and residents alike, municipalities in the GTHA will miss their near-term climate targets by a significant margin and make achieving our long-term targets even more challenging.”

Nevertheless, Purcell said these small rises in 2021 represent progress in a rapidly growing region, where tens of thousands of people arrived — even during the pandemic — and more skyscrapers are being built than in any other North American city.

“Trying to reduce emissions in a rapidly growing mega-region like the GTHA is kind of like running on a treadmill: You have to do quite a lot of work just to stay in the same spot,” he said. “So keeping emissions relatively flat since 2015 does reflect that climate policies and actions are working. We just need to dial it up.”

A reduction in commuting accounted for most of the drop in transportation emissions, said Purcell, a behavioural shift that could be permanent.

“It’s a great example of a win-win-win climate solution. People benefit from reduced commuting time; employers benefit from reduced real estate costs; and of course, everyone benefits from reduced carbon emissions and air pollution.”

The increased adoption of electric cars is also having a small but growing impact. Sales of zero-emission vehicles in Ontario almost doubled between 2020 and 2021, rising from 1.7 per cent of all car sales to 3.2 per cent. ZEV sales this year have doubled again, rising to 6.5 per cent of all car sales.

By 2035, 100 per cent of car sales will be electric, according to the federal government’s targets, but skyrocketing sales could make this a reality even sooner.

Currently, demand for battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles far outstrips supply and a recent Star investigation found average wait times in Toronto have ballooned to 11 months.

“The demand and the appetite is there for climate action,” said Purcell. “It’s such a stark contrast to five or 10 years ago.”

EVs could be the most visible example of the rapid adoption of climate solutions, but other readily available technologies are not far behind.

Electric heat pumps, which do double duty as both a furnace and an air conditioner, are starting to catch on, Purcell said, in no small part to the rising cost of natural gas and falling electricity prices.

A study by the Ontario Clean Air Alliance shows that installing a heat pump (which costs about the same as a new furnace and qualifies for a $5,000 federal Greener Homes rebate) will save the average homeowner on their heating bills every month.

“The increases in fossil fuel prices have driven an increased interest in climate action,” said Purcell. “The availability of these climate solutions — proven solutions that are available on the market today — have really made it a lot more real for people as an opportunity to improve their lives and to save money.”

This is something that outgoing Toronto Coun. Mike Layton knows something about. He recently retrofitted his house to cut his gas line and electrify everything, from his water heater to his induction stove.

“I think what we’ve seen is a shift in people’s thinking about what’s possible,” he said. “We’re seeing growth in those areas because I think people are starting to understand that we need to get off gas, we need to electrify.”

While the demand is there, more training is needed so that HVAC professionals are able to install heat pumps, and more policies are needed to ensure their availability.

“We’re going to need a million heat pumps in the city of Toronto over the next year. Multiply that across the GTA, Ontario and the country and we’re going to need tens of millions of heat pumps in the next 10 to 20 years.”

Pointing to cities like Vancouver, which have banned natural-gas water and space heating in new developments, and the U.S., where rebates on heat pumps and induction stoves are automatically issued in the mail, Layton says there are many ways to speed up the adoption of low-carbon technologies.

The federal and provincial governments are spending large sums to secure EV manufacturing in Ontario, and similar incentives could be used so heat pumps and induction stoves are made here as well.

“We see that this is the technology people are betting on for the future. And we should just give the support to industry to expand.”

Broken up by region, in 2021 Toronto saw the lowest per-capita emissions increase, at 1.3 per cent, thanks in part to the TTC helping keep people out of private vehicles. Local transportation emissions rose 3.3 per cent, not quite rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, with a boost in the number of cyclists helping

Halton region, including Burlington and Oakville, saw the biggest jump in greenhouse gas emissions at 15 per cent, bringing it close to pre-pandemic levels. TAF says a rise in natural gas emissions helped drive the increase. Emissions from buildings continue to account for more than half of Halton’s total.

Other increases are: York region (2.9 per cent); Peel region (3.7 per cent); Durham region (4.5 per cent); and Hamilton (6.9 per cent).

Marco Chown Oved is a Toronto-based reporter covering climate change for the Star. Reach him via email: moved@thestar.ca

David Rider is the Star's City Hall bureau chief and a reporter covering city hall and municipal politics. Follow him on Twitter: @dmrider