On this Omicron New Year’s Eve, take it outside, experts say: ‘The risk isn’t zero with an outdoor gathering, but it’s much, much less’

If you’re planning to host a New Year’s Eve party, health experts urge you to make it virtual or outdoors.

Omicron, which is extremely contagious and estimated to have already infected hundreds of thousands of people in Ontario, has made indoor gatherings far too risky — even for double-vaccinated groups with negative rapid test results.

Dr. Peter Jüni, scientific director of Ontario’s COVID-19 science table, said it is likely about five per cent of Ontarians currently have COVID and are infectious. That’s more than 725,000 people, or one in every 20 people.

By the time New Year’s comes around, he said there will be about a one in three chance that if you meet with 10 people, one of them will be infected.

“People need to understand now that after two (COVID vaccine) doses, their protection against infection is next to zero,” said Jüni. “If you have had two doses or less, you have a very high risk of getting infected and bringing the virus home.”

A third dose provides more protection against serious illness and becoming infected, but only 22 per cent of Ontarians have received one.

All this doesn’t mean the year can’t still end with a bang, rather than a whimper. Jüni said outdoor gatherings are safe enough that he wouldn’t advise against them.

It’s best to stay distanced, even outdoors, but wear a good-quality non-cloth mask if you can’t.

“Enjoy yourselves outdoors,” Jüni said.

While early studies out of the U.K. and South Africa seem to indicate Omicron may be milder and put fewer infected people in the hospital than the Delta variant, this potential reduction in severity may not be enough to offset the risk Omicron poses of overwhelming hospitals.

An analysis from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team found people infected with Omicron in England are around 20 per cent less likely to be hospitalized than those infected with the Delta variant and those that were admitted to hospitals were 40 per cent less likely to be hospitalized for a night or more.

Experts around the world are cautiously optimistic findings from these studies will hold up. Unfortunately, if even a small percentage of infected people get sick enough to go to the hospital, they could still wind up overburdening the health care system, given how widely Omicron is predicted to spread.

As well, unvaccinated people are more than 10 times as likely as double-dosed people of the same age and risk profile to be hospitalized from COVID, Jüni said. According to provincial vaccination data, over 1.8 million Ontarians are unvaccinated.

While evidence indicates having received two doses protects most people from developing serious complications after becoming infected with COVID, some may still get quite sick, Jüni said, a risk that is elevated with indoor gatherings.

Jüni cautioned that two doses do not prevent infected people from spreading COVID. Of grave concern to experts is vulnerable people, such as the elderly, immunocompromised and unvaccinated, becoming infected en masse and overwhelming hospitals.

For now, hospitalizations in Ontario remain low but are rising. On Wednesday, the province reported 726 hospitalizations due to COVID, up from 420 last week and the highest since June.

If you think having all attendees take rapid tests will make indoor gatherings safe, Jüni said, that’s not the case.

“You can’t use a negative rapid test as a reason to meet with people and expect to be protected, together with two vaccine doses,” he said. “That’s a fallacy now. (COVID) is simply too frequent. Those tests cannot rule out disease anymore because it’s so frequent.”

Jüni explained that because COVID is so ubiquitous, rapid tests, which generate a considerable amount of false negative results, are not reliable enough to accurately detect COVID at a rate that would make them safe to use to screen party guests.

It’s a matter of probability, he said. If a disease is rare enough, a negative result from a test that isn’t perfectly accurate can be more safely considered correct, provided the test-taker is not experiencing symptoms.

That isn’t the case with COVID anymore — it’s everywhere now.

“The rapid test will not allow you to rule out that someone is infectious right now because there’s too much infectiousness happening in the community,” Jüni said. “There are a lot of people who think they have a cold, but it’s most likely COVID right now. If you’re tired, it could well be COVID. If you have a loss of appetite — probably COVID.

“We’re in a completely different phase of the pandemic right now. It happened at an unfortunate part of the year, but we should celebrate and contribute to a better 2022. That means not having big parties at New Year’s Eve.”

But Jüni said celebrating is still possible.

“Go see fireworks, bring your sparkling wine, do it outdoors. If you just stay with your little bubble, another couple or so, and stay away from other couples, it’s all fine, enjoy yourselves.”

And if you’re outdoors and at least six feet apart from other people, you can even take off your mask, Jüni added.

Dr. Amit Arya, a palliative care physician, agreed that outdoor gatherings are the way to go this year.

“The risk isn’t zero with an outdoor gathering, but it’s much, much less than being indoors,” he said. “Outdoors there’s fresh air (so) ventilation is not an issue.”

Proper ventilation is key to lowering transmission risk, Arya said. If indoor gatherings are unavoidable, he recommends hosts keep windows or patio doors open and bathroom and stovetop fans on — whatever they can do to keep the air as “clean” as possible.

“If you have to meet indoors, have small gatherings, even smaller than 10 (people), as low as possible,” he said. “If you have access to an N95 or KN95 mask, wear it, that would be better than surgical or especially cloth masks.”

It would also be a better, he said, for people who live with children under five years old in particular to avoid indoor gatherings, as kids under five are still not eligible for vaccination.

“Even if you have children who are partially vaccinated, that is still risky,” said Arya. “You should consider an outdoor gathering. We also have to think about people in our families or communities who might be immunocompromised. Older adults, people with serious illnesses, like cancer — even if they’re vaccinated, they might not have the same immunity to COVID.

“We’re all living in a very interconnected world. Even though you might not be the one who will get very ill, getting infected could lead to more cases, more spread into those vulnerable populations.”

Ben Cohen is a Toronto-based staff reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @bcohenn